Today, Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingchi released a report saying that the iPhone is expected to adopt Apple’s 5G baseband chip as soon as 2023. Qualcomm will be forced to win more orders in the low-end market to make up for it. Loss of Apple orders.
The report said that due to the shortage of supply, the bargaining power of MediaTek and Qualcomm for brand manufacturers has been reduced, resulting in a significant increase in the pressure of competition in the low-end market.
Ming-Chi Kuo said that MediaTek’s 5G SoC advantage lies in close cooperation with TSMC, but Qualcomm will switch to low-end (6nm) and high-end (4nm) 5G SoCs to TSMC in 2021 and 2022, respectively. MediaTek’s production advantages. The report predicts that TSMC (TSMC) will ship Qualcomm’s 7325 and 6375 in the second and third quarters of 2021, respectively, which will help Qualcomm to regain market share from MediaTek.
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The report believes that MediaTek’s stock price has reflected the increase in the market share of 5G SoC and the increase in ASP (Average Selling Price). The challenges faced include:
- MediaTek’s 5G SoC market share has beaten Qualcomm, reaching 50%-55% in the first quarter of 2021, and is expected to increase slightly to 55%-60% in the second quarter of 2021, but this also means room for future growth limited. The report believes that no brand wants a single SoC supplier to have an excessive market share.
- In terms of high-end SoC, MediaTek is still unable to replace Qualcomm. Apple will use its own baseband chip, which means that MediaTek does not have the opportunity for new customers to drive growth.
- MediaTek’s production advantage will gradually diminish as Qualcomm returns to TSMC.
The report also pointed out that Qualcomm’s stock price has reflected the increase in the ASP of 5G SoC, and the challenges it faces include:
- 5G will not be able to drive the demand for Android high-end 5G mobile phones and will lose iPhone baseband chip orders as early as 2023, so it will be forced to compete with MediaTek in the low-end market.
- TSMC’s bargaining power is higher than Qualcomm’s, so Qualcomm’s transfer of orders from Samsung’s foundry to TSMC will be detrimental to profits.
- With the sluggish demand for 5G mobile phones and the foreseeable future improvement in supply shortages, Qualcomm may have to sacrifice profits to increase its market share of 5G SoC.
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