Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on social media on January 8 that the price of Tesla’s fully automatic driving system (FSD) in the United States will increase to $12,000 on January 17, compared to the current price. Raise $2000. At the same time, Tesla will also increase the monthly price of FSD subscribers, which currently costs $199 a month.
Software subscription services have gradually become a new growth point for OEMs’ performance. In 2022, a number of smart models will be mass-produced and delivered. The agency predicts that 2022 will usher in the first year of automobile intelligence.
Self-Driving Systems on The Rise
This is not the first time the price of Tesla’s FSD system has increased. In 2019, Tesla launched the third-generation Autopilot FSD (Full Self-Driving), which can realize intelligent driving functions including automatic parking, automatic assisted lane change, and intelligent summoning, and car owners can free their hands at high speed or on the loop. and feet. According to Tesla’s official website, Autopilot FSD is paid for activation. The one-time purchase price is $8,000 per set, and the domestic price is 64,000 yuan per set.
The price of the Tesla FSD is constantly changing as its features are upgraded. According to the statistics of Western Securities, in 2015, the FSD V7.0 version can realize automatic steering, automatic emergency steering + side collision warning, automatic lane change, automatic parking space search, and the price is 2500 US dollars/set; in 2018, FSD V9.0 version realized In 2020, the FSD Beta version can achieve fully autonomous driving on urban roads, and the price will double to $10,000 per set.
The selection rate of Tesla FSD is also increasing. Troyteslike data shows that in 2020, FSD’s optional installation rate in Model S/X models exceeds 60%, and the optional installation rate in Model Y models exceeds 40%. The continuous increase in the optional rate and price of FSD has injected impetus into the improvement of the gross profit margin of Tesla’s automobile business. Western Securities predicts that in 2025, the overall selection rate of Tesla FSD is expected to increase to 50%, and the gross profit contribution to the vehicle will be about 30%.
Software subscription services have become a new growth point for Tesla’s performance. The financial report shows that in the third quarter of 2021, Tesla’s service revenue including FSD was $894 million, accounting for 6.5% of the $13.757 billion in revenue in the quarter.
Rising Costs
Tesla products have seen frequent price hikes recently. On December 31, 2021, Tesla China’s official website showed that the price of the Model 3 rear-wheel-drive version was adjusted to 265,652 yuan, an increase of 10,000 yuan from the previous price; the price of the Model Y rear-wheel-drive version was adjusted to 301,840 yuan, which is higher than The previous price was increased by 21,088 yuan. On November 5, 2021, Tesla will increase the US price of the entire Model 3 and Model Y range by $1,000.
Musk said the main reasons for Tesla’s price increase were supply chain pressures across the industry and rising raw material costs. In addition to Tesla, the commercialization of Xiaopeng’s assisted driving system is also accelerating. Xiaopeng Motors mentioned in the prospectus that it provides customers with self-developed advanced autonomous driving system XPILOT 3.0 software in the form of paid services. As of March 31, 2021, more than 20% of P7 owners have purchased and activated this function.
According to the financial report data, in the first quarter of 2021, Xiaopeng Motors confirmed software revenue of 80 million yuan for the first time. He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Motors, said that software revenue will further increase in the second quarter of 2021 after the successful NGP (automatic navigation assisted driving function) high-speed autonomous driving expedition from Guangzhou to Beijing. At present, the cumulative payment rate of Xpeng Motors XPILOT 3.0 has exceeded 20%, and it will reach 25% in March 2022.
He Xiaopeng believes that the realization of XPILOT software will become a continuous source of income and profit for Xpeng Motors in addition to vehicle hardware sales. In the future, Xpeng Motors will use the next-generation XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0 to enhance the coverage of various road scenarios and achieve end-to-end autonomous driving capabilities.
Minsheng Securities pointed out that the “highlight moment” of intelligence is coming. According to the mass production process announced by major domestic OEMs, a variety of smart models will gradually land in 2022-2025.
Among the models to be delivered in 2022, Li Auto X01 supports L2-L4 autonomous driving functions, Xpeng P5 will have L4 hardware level for large-scale delivery in 2022, and NIO ET5, ET7 and ES7 will have L2 level. The above automatic driving function. In terms of traditional OEMs, SAIC Zhiji L7 and R-ES33 will support L2-L4 autonomous driving functions, BYD Han DM-i and Song MAX DM-i will have L2 functions, and Great Wall Salon and Mocha will have L2-L4 functions.
According to the forecast of Yiou Think Tank, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will be close to 5 million in 2022 and 11.376 million in 2025, with a market penetration rate of over 35%. According to IHS statistics, the L2 penetration rate in the first half of 2021 will be around 13%. It is expected that the L2+ autonomous driving penetration rate will exceed 23% in 2022 and will be close to 35% in 2025.