By 2027, Tesla is expected to surpass GM and Ford in revenue combined, Morgan Stanley said in a report on Thursday. Morgan Stanley analyst and longtime Tesla bull Adam Jonas said Tesla’s January vehicle sales showed it had a 4% market share and is expected to average 3.5% for the whole of this year.
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The analyst believes that Tesla’s market share in the United States will reach 10% by sales by 2026 and nearly 18% by 2030; by sales, its market share will reach 10% by 2025, It will reach 23% by 2030.
“We estimate that Tesla’s share will grow by more than 1,000 basis points by 2030, which means there will be some significant share donors along the way,” Jonas said.
Jonas expects GM’s U.S. market share to fall from 14.6 percent now to 14 percent by 2025 and less than 12 percent by 2030; Ford’s market share will fall from 12.5 percent by 2030 now to just over 10%.
The analyst concluded that GM and Ford will survive, if not very important, in the future EV ecosystem in the long run, but both companies will need to make significant changes to their business models. However, he also acknowledged that the competitive landscape will continue to change as new entrants gain market share, and Tesla’s road ahead will not be easy.