Tesla doesn’t plan to launch any new models this year, and the company’s goal will be to prioritize a 50 percent increase in annual vehicle deliveries, Chief Executive Elon Musk said last week. Some analysts believe that this move may affect Tesla’s position in the electric vehicle market.
Musk believes that Tesla can continue to hold the throne of the world’s largest electric car maker by selling only a few popular models, but the Wall Street Journal wrote that the move is challenging the auto industry’s long-held belief that companies The concept of attracting buyers by launching multiple new models.
Musk also mentioned that Tesla has delayed the production of the electric pickup Cybertruck until 2023. In addition, Musk said in 2020 that it would build a $25,000 affordable electric car, but the plan has now been suspended. In the future, Tesla will focus on fully self-driving software for electric vehicles and robots to assist in production work.
However, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi said the delay in launching the new model could make it difficult for Tesla to maintain the company’s current rapid growth momentum and questioned whether Tesla’s demand for the Model 3 and Model Y alone would be sufficient by 2024. The company’s expected growth target.
If Tesla is to achieve its goal of increasing deliveries by 50% annually, it may need to deliver more than 3 million vehicles in 2024, but last year Tesla delivered only about 936,000. Toni Sacconaghi believes that there is no precedent in the market where a company can sell 1.5 million units a year from one model alone, let alone two models from the same company.
Toyota’s Corolla, the world’s most popular car in 2020, also sold only about 1.1 million units, according to Bernstein’s analysis. Barclays analyst Brian Johnson said Tesla’s focus on ramping up production of existing models could help the company increase profits this year.
But delays in launching new models could ultimately make it more vulnerable to competition. Auto companies typically aim to have 10 to 15 percent of their models get a major update during the year.
In a recent note to investors, Johnson said Ford’s experience about a century ago could serve as a warning to Tesla, writing that Ford controlled about 60 million vehicles in 1921 due to the success of the Model T.
% of the U.S. auto market, so Ford focused on the Model T for the next few years, but at the same time, rivals including GM released a flurry of cars that gradually eroded Ford’s market share by 1927, Ford’s market share has dropped to 16%.
“With no further details on future products, we think Tesla has the potential to repeat the history of the 1920s Ford Model T,” Johnson said.