Analyst: If iPhone sales slow down, Apple’s stock price may plummet by 30%

Apple updates the iPhone product line every fall. When Apple released the iPhone 12 in 2020, the market was eagerly waiting, and demand for Apple products soared; in the first quarter, with the launch of Apple’s new 5G mobile phones, iPhone sales soared by 66%, and such strong demand will continue in the next few years. The quarter continues.

This fall, Apple will release the successor to iPhone 12, iPhone 12s, or iPhone 13. Unlike the situation when the iPhone 12 was released a year ago, there were not many discussions on the new iPhone. New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragou pointed out that Apple’s sales this year may only increase slightly, which may mean that Apple has entered a period of weak demand.

Ferragu believes that Apple’s earnings are expected to fall, and the stock price may fall by 20% to 30%. Therefore, the rating of Apple stock was lowered from “Neutral” to Sell, and the target price was lowered from $135 to $90.

Ferragu believes that the iPhone 12’s hot sales are a continuation of the supercycle of Apple’s products. The sales growth of Apple’s mobile phones was strongest when the iPhone 6 was launched in 2014. The surge in iPhone 12 sales has brought demand back to a high point. Leading to the subsequent decline in demand.

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Compared with iPhone12, this year’s new mobile phone has not improved much. At the same time, affected by the new crown epidemic, consumer spending on electronic products will generally decrease, which he believes means that Apple’s autumn conference may have a flat response.

The consensus on Wall Street is that iPhone sales should reach 234 million units in September of the 2022 fiscal year, which is 2% higher than the expected sales in the 2021 fiscal year. Ferragu thinks this is unlikely. Wall Street’s predictions mean that the phone released by Apple this fall will be the most attractive product in the company’s history, and he believes this is unlikely to happen.

Ferragu predicts that Apple’s shipments this year will be at least about 15% lower than Wall Street’s expectations-between 180 million and 200 million. In addition, sales in the two quarters of September and December will also be lower than Wall Street’s expectations. Despite being bearish, Apple’s stock price rose slightly by 0.3% to 125.65 US dollars after the market on Friday.

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