On the last day of 2021, the statement of the world’s richest man, Musk, gave people a sense of urgency. In response to a tweet about There being currently 936 startups valued at more than $1 billion, Musk said that if history can learn from it, then most startups will not be able to survive the next recession.
When further asked when he thinks the next economic recession will occur, Musk said, Predicting the macroeconomy is very challenging. My intuition is that the recession will come about in the spring or summer of 2022, no later than 2023.
Just about a month ago, Musk tweeted on November 30 that SpaceX may face bankruptcy during the next recession. The global economy has fallen into a huge recession, the liquidity of funds may be tight, and SpaceX’s expenses are staggering. Although SpaceX is unlikely to go bankrupt, it is not impossible.
In 2021, the net assets of the top ten richest people will increase by a total of about 400 billion US dollars, and Musk will rank first. Its net assets have increased by US$118 billion in the past year, making him the world’s richest man. Musk’s increase of $121 billion in net assets this year is slightly lower than the increase of $140 billion in 2020.
His wealth growth is mainly due to the rapid expansion of his electric car manufacturing business. Tesla’s stock has risen about 50% this year, and the company’s market value surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in October. Musk has recently been selling a large number of Tesla shares to pay nearly $12 billion in taxes this year.
Previously, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers had issued a warning that the U.S. economy will face severe tests in the next few years, with the risk of recession and stagnation. Summers pointed out: It would be a good thing if the U.S. economy can continue to operate in a hotter manner, but now inflation has reached a point where it is difficult to reduce without triggering an economic recession, just like the painful lessons of the 1970s.
Summers pointed out that the risk of long-term stagnation still exists, or a situation during the Great Depression may occur, with economic growth rates falling and interest rates lower than historically normal levels. Looking at the next few years, long-term stagnation is a real risk.
Goldman Sachs is also not optimistic about the future of the US economy. Currently, the market is unanimously expecting GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 to be 3.4%, and the median expected value of FOMC participants of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee is 4.0%.
The latest forecast of Goldman Sachs, calculated according to the fourth quarter, is 2.4% (or 3.5% for the whole year). Goldman Sachs believes that the slowdown in the first quarter of 2022 may be the most obvious because the Omi Keron variant will affect the service sector and labor supply, and exacerbate the disruption of the global supply chain. In terms of 2022 as a whole, the main concern is the large-scale fiscal correction in the United States.