For the first time in two years, Tesla deliveries did not increase sequentially in the second quarter of this year but fell by around 18 percent. After this report from the beginning of July, the share did not collapse, because a decrease of this magnitude had been expected due to the temporary closure of the gigafactory in China. In June, Tesla also set a new production record there. And an investment company has now calculated how high it would have been without the restrictions in China that lasted several weeks.
Tesla’s growth increased without China’s effect
With 254,695 deliveries in Q2 2022, Tesla had just met the previously lowered analysts’ expectations, and production was also around 15 percent lower than at the beginning of the year at 28,580. Because the important factory in China was completely closed from the end of March until the second half of April due to a corona lockdown and was then only able to produce to a limited extent. As a result, Tesla was missing around 85,000 electric cars in the quarter, according to the investment company Loup Ventures, which has been investing in the company for a long time.
In a brief analysis from the end of last week, Loup assumes that these additionally produced electric cars could also have been sold in the same quarter. Instead of just under 255,000, there would have been around 340,000 Tesla deliveries in Q2, it says. With an increase of around 10 percent compared to Q1, that would have been a new record. At the same time, it would have meant growth of 69 percent compared to the second quarter of the previous year instead of just under 27 percent – roughly the same as from Q4 2021 to Q1 2022 with an increase of 68 percent.
This roughly shows the path Tesla was on before the Chinese corona lockdown thwarted this growth calculation. Because the capacity of the Gigafactory in Shanghai is now well above the approximately 70,000 Model 3 and Model Y by the end of 2021, and new factories have been added in Grünheide, Germany, and in the US state of Texas. Altogether, Tesla achieved the highest production in the company’s history in June.
The distance ahead of US automakers is increasing
According to Loup Ventures, the Q2 figures adjusted for the China effect also show that Tesla’s growth and thus the gap in front of other manufacturers has increased further. In the US, the top eight would have seen an average decline of 23 percent over the same period. Tesla has actually developed 91 percent faster than the industry and this difference in speed has even increased compared to the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022. Loup admits that a comparison of global figures for Tesla and US values for other manufacturers is not entirely appropriate. Nevertheless, the data are useful to visualize the extent of the discrepancy.
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